The TCG market has never really slowed down over the last few years—it’s just shifted where the hype, capital, and risk are flowing. As someone actively buying, selling, and reallocating across Pokémon, One Piece, Yu-Gi-Oh!, and Magic: The Gathering, I wanted to share how I’m currently approaching the market and where I see opportunity (and danger).
This isn’t financial advice—just how I’m navigating the noise.
One Piece continues to sit at all-time hype levels, and honestly, that’s exactly why I’ve been cautious.
Right now, I’m still actively liquidating sealed product, alternate arts, and slabs, rather than aggressively picking up new releases. The demand is undeniably strong, but the mass euphoria around One Piece feels unsustainably one-sided—everyone wants in, very few want out.
That said, I’m not completely ignoring the space.
For now, One Piece is a market where I’m prioritising risk management over upside chasing.
Pokémon is one of the most interesting markets right now—and also one of the most misunderstood.
In Japan, Pokémon is absolutely booming. Pikachu prices are soaring in anticipation of the 30th Anniversary, and that momentum is inflating the entire domestic market. Meanwhile, in the West, the same Japanese cards are often selling for significantly less.
Why did Super Electric Breaker price spike to match almost VStar Universe prices and higher than Terastal festival when the set is mid? Pikachu of course.
At face value, this looks like a short-term arbitrage opportunity:
Buy in the West → Sell into the East.
However, that window is starting to close.
Recent eBay slab listings suggest the price gap between East and West is narrowing, either due to market efficiency kicking in—or Western sellers aggressively undercutting to move inventory. Realistically, margins on modern Japanese Pokémon are now sitting around 5–10%, which isn’t particularly attractive once fees and risk are factored in.
Because of this, I’ve been:
If you’re watching PokéTube right now, you’d think the market is collapsing.
I don’t see it that way.
What we’re experiencing looks far more like a normal price correction after the aggressive run from late 2024 through Q4 2025. That kind of growth was never going to sustain forever.
One thing I do notice is that hype around mega sets appears to be fading:
Ascended Heroes feels far more balanced and healthier as a set.
Perfect Order, based on early announcements, is already dampening hype—Zygarde isn’t a particularly popular featured Pokémon, and the set artwork hasn’t landed well. That said, we don’t know the full card list yet, so this is still speculation.
If I were buying sealed Pokémon right now, my focus would be:
Magic: The Gathering has quietly surprised me.
After the Spider-Man crossover disappointment, I didn’t expect much—but the return to Lorwyn seems to have reignited genuine interest. What really caught my attention is that Play Boosters are sold out almost everywhere in Australia, which is unusual given how readily available they normally are.
The big question:
Is this hype… or are players genuinely reinvesting?
I decided not to overthink it and got on the train:
From my perspective, there’s a legitimate EV play in ripping Play Boosters and selling singles, especially given the theme and nostalgic appeal of the set.
This feels less like speculative flipping and more like a player-driven resurgence, which is usually a healthier signal.
Yu-Gi-Oh! is interesting again—and I didn’t expect to say that.
The Limit Over Collection caught my attention as a clear pivot by Bandai:
Full-art focus
Serialized-style chase cards
A Dark Magician equivalent that directly targets collectors, not just players
This is a smart shift toward collector appeal, something Yu-Gi-Oh! has historically struggled with.
I see a potential investment play here, so I:
Will it flop? Possibly.
Will Japanese collectors rotate capital into it? That’s the bet.
Worst case, I’m comfortable holding long-term. I’m also waiting on English preorder details, and if the setup mirrors the Japanese release, I’m likely to take the same gamble.
Right now, the TCG market isn’t about chasing everything—it’s about selectivity.
At Cardboard Grail, the goal isn’t just to ride hype cycles—it’s to survive them, learn from them, and position ahead of the next rotation.
As always, markets move fast. Stay flexible—and don’t let euphoria make decisions for you.