Over the last month, something interesting — and frankly a little concerning — has been happening in the One Piece TCG market. Most of my graded One Piece cards and sealed booster boxes have sold rapidly, not because of long-term fundamentals, but largely driven by hype and aggressive money rotation flowing out of Pokémon and into One Piece.
This isn’t unusual in the broader collectibles market. Capital chases momentum. When Pokémon stalls or consolidates, investors and speculators look for the next high-growth narrative. Right now, One Piece is wearing that crown.
But the real question is: is the current price action sustainable?
In just the last two months, we’ve seen One Piece sealed booster boxes jump 2–3x in price. For sealed investing, that kind of movement is extremely abnormal.
Historically, meaningful sealed appreciation happens over 3–5 years, not a few weeks. Slow supply decay, nostalgia cycles, and organic collector demand are what usually drive sustainable growth.
To put this into perspective, earlier this year I struggled to sell an OP01 white bottom booster box for $400. It sat on eBay for weeks with little interest. Fast forward to today — listing the same box around the $2,000 mark, and it sells within 2–3 days.
That kind of velocity doesn’t come from collectors slowly entering the hobby. It comes from speculative capital.
Another uncomfortable reality: the box price no longer makes sense relative to expected pulls. You should expect ripping a case or two for a chance for a manga pull.
Anything below that, and you’re often underwater — sometimes significantly. When sealed prices rely on perfect outcomes just to break even, that’s not healthy market structure. That’s gambling driven by FOMO.
Collectors open boxes for fun. Speculators open boxes hoping for miracles.
One of the biggest tailwinds behind One Piece has been the live-action Netflix series. Season 2 is expected to air next year, and while it may create another short-term spike, I believe it also marks a potential inflection point.
Once the season finishes airing, attention fades. New money slows. Early investors — myself included — begin to liquidate. I currently hold a significant amount of OP01 sealed, and I can confidently say I’m not alone.
I fully expect price corrections either shortly after Season 2 ends, or potentially even earlier.
There are also persistent rumours circulating within the hobby:
Whether fully true or partially exaggerated, the behaviour lines up with what we’re seeing: thin supply, fast flips, and emotionally driven pricing.
Adding to the risk is Bandai’s track record. Across multiple TCGs, Bandai has shown a willingness to overprint once demand peaks. If reprints or delayed waves hit the market, today’s prices could unwind very quickly.
This isn’t a call to abandon One Piece. It’s a fantastic franchise with a passionate fanbase and strong global recognition.
But from an investment standpoint, the current market feels overheated.
If you’re a collector — buy what you enjoy and can afford to hold long-term. If you’re a speculator — understand that momentum cuts both ways.
Parabolic moves rarely end quietly.
— Cardboard Grail, Cardboard Corner